Obama's win was an historic day for forecasters too

2017-06-15 01:00:05

Barack Obama’s win was as much a triumph for mathematicians. For all the inherent uncertainties in electoral outcomes, the 2008 contest may be the one that established election forecasting as a powerful predictive science. Even pollsters who predicted Barack Obama’s smooth ride to the White House were aware of a possible fly in the ointment: the so-called Bradley effect, in which white voters say they will vote for a black candidate for fear of seeming racist if they admit otherwise. Statisticians are still crunching the data,